Ag Weather News
Forecaster-written weather analysis for agriculture — severe weather outlooks and seasonal insights.
Last Spring Frost
It's April 6 and for many across the US, March was one of the hottest on record. For the Great Lakes, Northern Plains, and entire Eastern US
Lull in the Pattern, Quiet Severe Weather Stretch
After an active run of severe storms across the Plains and Midwest to start the month of April we'll see a period of quieter weather this week.
Tornadoes, Damaging Winds the Primary Risks in Midwest
An active weather day is unfolding across the Midwest, with multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected from Missouri into Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and
Strong El Niño Analogs for April-June
While we wait on the new seasonal forecasts from the ECMWF (will be released on April 5) I wanted to comment on the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Severe Storms on the Southern Plains Today
A classic spring severe weather setup is taking shape across the Southern Plains today, with storms expected to develop quickly by late afternoon and
Snow...
Models continue to adjust the main track of this snow, but each new run continues to produce a "healthy" amount of snow on the backside of
Warmer Trends for April 13-20
We had be concerned that the Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast had additional colder risks after mid-April, but the model trends for that time period
Stormy Week Gets Started
Multiple rounds of organized thunderstorm activity is expected through the next 7 days as a series of upper-level disturbances track from the Plains
The Elvis Rule...
This post is for Midwest, I-state farmers... My colleague, Matt Reardon, and I have been trying to come up with a way of remembering one of the more
2012 Drought Comparison
First, I am finally done with all my winter/spring travel for work! So this seasonal blog will see much more regular updates. One of the most
Big Hail Back in the Midwest Today
A familiar risk here in the early spring of 2026 as we discuss the potential for large, damaging hail over 2" in diameter across portions of
Severe Weather Risk *Upgrade* For Thursday, March 26
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio to a level 3 of 5, enhanced risk on their latest Day Two Severe
Trends in the ECMWF Forecast for April Precipitation Anomalies
I've been watching the monthly forecast from the ECMWF for April 2026 total precipitation anomalies to see how consistent the model has been
Severe Storms Back in the Ohio Valley Late-Week
We'll hold off on details with respect to timing and impacts for now, but severe storms are likely to be back in the forecast on Thursday, March
New CPC Summer Outlook: VERY Dry Central Plains
I am going to jump over spring weather for a moment and show the latest CPC forecast for July-Sept 2026. This forecast was released on the 19th of
Quiet Pattern Through Late March, Could April Turn Stormy Again?
After a run of active weather systems brought much-needed drought relief along with severe storms to parts of the Southern Plains and Midwest in late
Multi-Day Severe Weather Outbreak Sunday PM - Monday
Sunday: A powerful storm system will initiate a high-volume, widespread severe weather threat across much of the central and eastern United States
July-Sept 2026 ECMWF Global Forecast
Have a look at the latest ECMWF forecast for precipitation anomalies for July-September 2026. I've labeled the parts of this forecast I have the
Sunday Squall Line - Wind Damage and Tornado Potential in Ohio Valley
A powerful storm system will move across the Plains and into the Midwest on Sunday, bringing the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late in
CPC Increases Summer El Niño Chances
There isn't a lot of surprise here, but I wanted to include the latest from the CPC. They are predicting that El Niño will be the dominant mode