Ag Weather News
Forecaster-written weather analysis for agriculture — severe weather outlooks and seasonal insights.
June-August Precipitation Anomalies
The new NMME and ECMWF seasonal forecasts are out and these two models are NOT in agreement about summer. The NMME is significantly drier across the
Two Zones of Severe Storms Tuesday PM
A widespread springtime severe weather outbreak is expected Tuesday into Tuesday night from the Southern Plains into the Midwest. Two distinct
Dryness Concerns Expand Next 15-Days (Plains/Western Cornbelt)
The latest 15-day outlook for the probability of LESS THAN 0.5" of total precipitation continues to show very dry conditions in the Plains that
Summer Precipitation Patterns from the ECMWF
If you get a chance, watch the end of my forecast video on Friday March 6, 2026 where I discuss the possible transition from spring into summer
First Fatal Tornado of 2026, Severe Storms Risk Lingers into Weekend
The first tornado fatalities of 2026 occurred in Oklahoma last night as a damaging tornado tracked northwest of the community of Fairview. The storm
**NEW** ECMWF Seasonal ENSO Forecast
The ECMWF 7-month forecast was released this morning (3/5/2026) and the model continues to aggressively forecast a strong El Niño by mid-summer.
Uncertain Spring Precipitation Patterns (2023 and 2015)
The speed at which El Niño develops will impact several sub-seasonal weather events the most important of which will be the MJO position and Global
Significant Changes Coming to the Drought Monitor
The last drought monitor map in February hit 75% coverage across the lower-48. Given the rainfall forecast, I am anticipating that by the start of
Temperature Roller Coaster
Huge warmup coming in the near term, but March temperature volatility will be the normal for much of this month. Take a look at the next 15-days of
Spring 2026 Analogs
La Niña's very fast collapse and the high likelihood of El Niño by summer has helped us narrow down the list of years that could be potential