The ECMWF 7-month forecast was released this morning (3/5/2026) and the model continues to aggressively forecast a strong El Niño by mid-summer. While we are not yet through the "spring barrier of predictability" the model has been very consistent over the last 3 runs in predicting a major change in the sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific. The last two El Niños of this magnitude were 2023 and 2015. I want to also throw 2018 in as a possible analog too as it was a spring/summer of rapid transition to a weak/moderate El Niño. More analysis to come...