Let's talk near term first. The tropics are telegraphing several key features - MJO pushing hard into the Pacific (Phase 7-8-1), a large typhoon forecast to show up in the West Pacific that will recurve into the North Pacific enhancing the jet stream, and a potential East Pacific hurricane about 8 days from now. Those three features alone will really stir up the Pacific heat and momentum. In the meantime, a cut-off low sits over the Wester US while a very large ridge builds through Central North America. What needs to be understood is if all the activity in the Pacific will break this North American pattern apart or fail to move it. If it fails to break it apart, June could be very stagnant in terms of pattern adjustments.
I wanted to see how the developing El Niño could impact this June and July so I created composite precipitation maps of every June and July when the Southern Oscillation Index is below -7 (which is a strong indication of El Niño). The two maps presented here show how years with building El Niños often have large pattern breaks around the June Solstice. There is a lot of evidence that we will see something similar to this as we transition through June into July this year.