The latest updates from the ECMWF and GFS Extended Forecasts for May 15 to June 15 show very little agreement. There has been an issue over the last few weeks with these models not aligning on the precipitation patterns through the end of Spring. MJO collapses into Null Space before jumping into Phase 7 could be one of the problems, but I think the bigger issue is the seasonal transition. The NH is gathering a lot of heat from longer days and higher solar angles. Add that to intense farming practices (changes surface evaporation rates), a highly anomalous precipitation pattern for the last 60 days, and a flip in the April-to-May temperature pattern, and the models have an odd set of initial conditions to start from to predict the next 30 days. Global momentum is also changing a lot right now and the emerging El Niño is influencing that a lot too. May will tell us a lot - ESPECIALLY if the Plains hit on the rains after the middle of the month. If that fails, a feedback loop will likely set up that will help determine summer precipitation patterns.