First, I am finally done with all my winter/spring travel for work! So this seasonal blog will see much more regular updates. One of the most frequent questions I am being asked about this summer has to do with a comparison to 2012. For those of us in the Central US, this happens every spring... How close are we to a 2012 scenario? Well, right now, not very close PLUS the real story in 2012's epic central US drought unfolded in May when drought took hold in the MidSouth/Delta/Midwest. Take a look at the image above which shows the late march drought monitors for 2026 and 2012. They are very different and there is actually a lot more drought area in 2026 (75% of the US in some stage of drought). HOWEVER April forecasts are wet from Eastern Texas through the Delta and Central/Eastern Cornbelt into the Northeast. If those rains do fall as forecast, the "Elvis Rule" is in effect for June-July 2026. That rule is defined by rains in the MidSouth in April and May and the level of saturation in the soils of the Delta. If that region is wet early, the the risk of early summer drought in the Midwest is reduced significantly (just like 2025). However, if April and May drought build in the Delta/MidSouth, the risk for Mississippi/Missouri/Ohio Valley drought and heat more than doubles for June and July - which is what happened in 2012. After Spring, all eyes go to the Northeast Pacific Ocean temperatures for a clue about summer ridging across North America. More on that soon...