A powerful storm system will move across the Plains and into the Midwest on Sunday, bringing the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late in the day and especially Sunday evening. A developing surface low tracking from Missouri into Illinois will push a cold front eastward through the Mid-South and Ohio Valley while strengthening winds aloft create a very favorable environment for organized storms.
In addition to the strong winds aloft, dew points in the 52-58 degree range with temperatures climbing into the middle to upper 60s to near 70 degrees from central and southern Illinois and Indiana southward into the Mississippi Delta region will provide enough instability for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development late in the day on Sunday.
Thunderstorms may first develop along the cold front during the late afternoon from Texas into Arkansas and Missouri, where hail and damaging wind gusts are possible. The greater concern Sunday evening and overnight is the development of a fast-moving line of severe storms capable of widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes from northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri into central and southern Illinois, Indiana, western Kentucky, and Tennessee.
A few corridors of extensive wind damage are possible with straight-line wind gusts over 70 mph, which are strong enough to topple trees and power lines leading to power outages, along with minor structural damage. Additionally, embedded tornadoes which may be rain-wrapped and traveling quickly may be a significant risk with this squall line late Sunday evening into the early overnight.
Updates to the exact region of greatest concern are expected as the forecast becomes clearer this weekend, please keep an eye on this evolving severe weather risk if you are in or near the risk area.
Below are a few plots from the RRFS high-resolution weather model, with a look at how this severe weather risk may evolve. Do not treat it as gospel, but instead look at the overall evolution from no storms, to scattered storms, to an extensive squall line Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
