Ag Weather News
Forecaster-written weather analysis for agriculture — severe weather outlooks and seasonal insights.
May Precipitation Forecast (bias...)
I've been watching the trends in the May forecast from the ECMWF and the story has been consistent to start the month. We are expecting a
Big Hail Has Been A Big Problem in 2026
Large hail has been a significant issue in 2026, and it’s not all that surprising given the pattern that set up heading into early spring. Severe
Flash Flooding, Clustered Storms Along the Gulf Coast
Thunderstorms are expected to develop and track along the Gulf Coast today into tonight, bringing a combination of heavy rainfall and a low-end
After Blistering Start, Central U.S. Storm Track Slows in Early May
After a blistering fast start to the 2026 severe weather season across the United States the pattern comes to a screeching halt in early May. An
2026 Tornadoes Per State through April
The 2026 U.S. tornado count is running above average as we reach the end of April, with much of the peak severe weather season still ahead. With
Recapping an Active Week of Storms
The past week has been extremely active from the Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest, with a series of storm systems bringing damaging
Marine Heat Wave (++PMM)
Atmospheric scientists have developed indexes for nearly all weather events. You've heard of ENSO (El Niño and La Niña) and probably the PDO
Highly Conditional/Uncertain Risk for Severe Storms in the Central & Southern Plains Today
Today’s severe weather setup across the Central and Southern Plains comes with a fair amount of uncertainty, but any severe storms that do develop
Drought Amelioration
If you get a chance, check out this site https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/drought-recovery/current/wmp/end-rain/3 it shows the amount of
Plains and Midwest Remain Red Hot with Severe Storms
The Southern Plains and Midwest remain red hot with severe weather activity as we move into the climatological peak of the season across the United
East-Based El Niño - Analog Analysis
Evidence continues to support the predictions released by the seasonal forecast models for an "East-Based" El Niño event. These events
CPC Predicts Summer Plains Drought / Cool Midwest
The latest update from the CPC kept the same precipitation pattern for July-September as it had predicted in March - DRY in the Plains with a Kansas
May 2026 Precipitation Outlook
Drought will continue to deepen in the Southeast and Plains through much of the next 7-10 days. There is a pattern shift taking place in the Atlantic
Midwest and Plains Back in Severe Storm Risk on Friday, Apr 17th
A powerful storm system will move out of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Friday, bringing strong winds aloft and a warm, unstable air mass
Significant Severe Weather LIKELY in the Midwest Today
We have many of the necessary ingredients coming together for significant severe weather impacts today, including the potential for a few tornadoes
UKMET Seasonal Forecast for May-July Precipitation Anomalies
The latest long range forecast model to be released is the UKMET. Here are the forecast precipitation anomalies for May-July 2026. This forecast is
Persistence is winning April's Pattern
Well, we've seen this for WEEKS... Dominant Bermuda High, blocked Pacific, MJO in the Pacific, ++NOA, etc. etc. The result is building drought
Multi-Day Severe Weather Sequence This Weekend into Next Week
A multi-day severe weather sequence is expected across the central U.S. this weekend into early next week, primarily focused on the April 11–15
Soil Moisture Issues (April 9)
There are three areas, outside of the Western US Mountains, that continue to increase drought area through early Spring. First, the expansive Bermuda
Strongest El Niño on Record???
The new seasonal weather forecast from the ECMWF was dropped on Easter and the model is VERY AGGRESSIVE on developing one of the strongest El Niño