While we wait on the new seasonal forecasts from the ECMWF (will be released on April 5) I wanted to comment on the Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies of 2.4°C-2.8°C above normal by August-September 2026. This would rival the peak sea surface temperature anomalies set by the 1982 El Niño and surpass the 2015, 1997, 1991, and 1972 El Niños. The graphic shows the composite precipitation anomalies for April-June in those years and the one striking feature across the US is the increase in precipitation across the Plains and Southeast - two areas that are deep in drought now. In most of these analog years, the rainfall really got going for the Southeast and Plains in May, while parts of the Cornbelt saw wider windows to finish planting. Globally, the safrinha crops in Brazil finished with adequate moisture while parts of Indonesia and Southeast Asia settled into months of drought as the MJO moved into the Pacific Ocean. This is an interesting set of analogs and it is very likely that 2026 will have its own flavor, but I figured it was worth examining in this seasonal forecast blog. -Eric