Seasonal Outlook

East-Based El Niño (another look)

East-Based El Niño (another look)

There is a very useful tool you can find at https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/enso_statistics/index.html that puts together composite maps with confidence intervals for numerous weather variables measured against ENSO (El Niño and La Niña) and the Indian Ocean Dipole.

We are anticipating a East-Based El Niño this summer which means both the tropical convection and warmest ocean temperatures will likely be found closer to South America than the middle of the Equatorial Pacific. We call that region "Niño Region 3 and the map above shows the historical composite June-August temperature pattern when there is an East-Based El Niño. The map shows that the northern half of the US tends to avoid long duration excessive heat during the heart of summer. This DOES NOT mean that there won't be periods of above normal temperatures. It simply means that the odds are tilted toward those episodes of heat to be transient and not persistent for weeks on end.

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