Long-range forecast models continue to increase the probability of an historic El Niño event over the next 6-8 months. The difficulty with this is in trying to coming up with analog years that will capture the behavior of the summer weather patterns for 2026. The models are exhibiting a VERY strong bias to their initial conditions (meaning that the long range forecast reflects too much of what the weather patterns are doing right now). The problem is that the models are likely not capturing how the development of the El Niño is interacting with the warm ocean temps off the West Coast of North America while the Atlantic is split into 3 different temperature regimes. So I have little trust and confidence in the predicted June-July precipitation pattern represented above. The 4-panel map shows the ECMWF forecast on the left and NMME forecast on the right. The top graphs are the forecasts of the sea surface temperature anomalies and the bottom maps are the June-August precipitation anomalies for each model. Conclusion: summer weather will be controlled by sub-seasonal features that will be enhanced by the El Niño event (and we don't know what those are going to be just yet).